January 1, 2101: A look 'back' at the 21st century

by Doug Dwoyer

Hampton Roads has endured a period of rapid and challenging change over the last century. The 21st century began with great optimism in the region as the nation's and region's economies were thriving. Many trends of those times, including globalization of the world's economy, significant military activity and spending and rising coal exports, favored Hampton Roads. Our once-thriving port was rapidly expanding, fueled by globalization of trade and growing coal exports. In those heady days, the future of the region indeed looked bright.

At this time, the world began to recognize the emergence of human-induced climate change and its potential to cause major disruption during the 21st century. In 2007 a report was issued by a body called the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which was sponsored by the United Nations and the World Meteorological Organization. It projected a 5-degree to 9-degree Fahrenheit change in mean global temperature and a 1-foot to 2-foot rise in sea level by 2100. Shortly after this report was issued, scientists began to discover rapid melting and deterioration of the Greenland and West Antarctica ice sheets, leading to fears of even greater sea-level rise.


Unfortunately, people around the world, including those in Hampton Roads, did not seriously respond to these warnings and continued to operate as if climate change was something abstract and not important in their daily lives.

As we know today, the projections in the 2007 IPCC report on global temperature rise were remarkably accurate, as now in 2101 it is about 10 degrees warmer around the planet than it was in 2001.

On the other hand, we have experienced a far greater sea-level rise than predicted, with sea level about 6 feet higher today than in 2001. As Greenland and West Antarctica continue their rapid melting today, there is no end in sight to rapid sea-level rise. The impact of these global changes on our region has been nothing short of devastating.

Old-timers in Hampton Roads can recall large areas of our region east of U.S. Route 17 that were above water and populated. Large areas of Gloucester and York counties, as well as major sections of Hampton, Norfolk, Virginia Beach and Chesapeake, were home to thriving communities, businesses, factories and other assets. The city of Poquoson, which no longer exists, had a population of about 11,000 in 2001 and was a rapidly growing bedroom community.

Our major highway links across the harbor, the Hampton Roads Bridge-Tunnel and the Monitor-Merrimac Memorial Bridge-Tunnel are frequently overwashed and require constant repair.

These old-timers can recall a vast military presence in the region. After the devastation caused by the major hurricanes of 2038 and 2042 and subsequent inundation, the Air Force was forced to abandon Langley Air Force Base, and by 2075 the Navy was also forced to abandon the Norfolk naval base and numerous other facilities due to inundation as well. With the loss of these military facilities, the region lost a major part of its employment base and population.


In the early 21st century, Hampton Roads was a thriving, waterfront-oriented region, and much of our then-acclaimed lifestyle was focused on living near and playing on the water.

Today that is hard to imagine, as our waterfront is dominated by abandoned buildings slowly being claimed by the bay or sea. Abandoned roads, sewage treatment facilities and other utilities lie just beneath the surface in the near-shore areas. The massive pollution from all of this has ruined the quality of the water itself, as well as making nearshore navigation hazardous. Indeed, the water has transformed from being a regional asset in 2001 to a hazardous, polluted eyesore that is inexorably devouring the region in 2101.

Looking back on this sad state of affairs for Hampton Roads in 2101, we can only wish that our ancestors a century or more ago had taken the ample warnings more seriously before these irreversible changes began. We could today live in a very different, more prosperous and enjoyable Hampton Roads than the sorry state our community has instead inherited.

Doug Dwoyer retired from NASA Langley Research Center as associate director for operations. He is project director for the Hampton Roads Research Partnership. This article was originally published on March 1, 2009 in the Daily Press and is reprinted here by permission of the author.

NOTE: Outside of New Orleans, Hampton Roads is the largest population area at greatest risk from sea-level rise according to the US Geological Service. (Thieler, E.R., and Hammar-Klose, E.S., 1999. National assessment of coastal vulnerability to sea-level rise: Preliminary results for the U.S. Atlantic coast. U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 99-593).

From the Virginia Dept. of Environmental Quality; Click on map above for larger view.

Creating Green Jobs: Algae-to-Biodiesel Research at ODU

In conjunction with the Virginia Coastal Energy Research Consortium, Old Dominion University researchers have developed an algae-growing farm and biodiesel production facility. They are trying to determine the most effective means to grow and harvest algae and the most efficient way to convert it to biodiesel.

From Virginia Business Magazine, April 2009

More on ODU's efforts: www.ODU.edu

Hampton Roads included in testimony before the House Energy & Commerce Committee

On April 24th, during testimony about the American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009 before the House Energy & Commerce Committee, the following remarks were made by Newt Gingrich. Mr. Gingrich spoke to these ideas as well during his September 2008 engagement with The Norfolk Forum:

A ROADMAP FOR MORE AMERICAN ENERGY NOW

The best way for us to get started on solving our energy needs is with the same Manhattan Project like urgency that we displayed during World War II....

We can do it all. We can do it now. We can do it for America. This is the American way. We have stuck to this belief for 400 years, and it has made us the most prosperous and freest country in the world.

Let's apply American ingenuity to solving an American problem by developing more American energy now.

Solutions for more oil and natural gas development... (link to items 1-5 at the end of this post)

6. Create public/private partnerships in coastal states to fast track the ability of oil and natural gas companies to develop offshore oil and gas resources. If Congress were to lift the ban on offshore oil and gas development (or at least grant coastal states the right to develop the resources with a plan to share revenue with them), states would move swiftly to set up partnerships that will maximize the best use of oil and gas revenues.

Efforts in Virginia provide a good example. In 2004, two Virginia legislators, Delegate Chris Saxman and Senator Frank Wagner, learned that Virginia manufacturers were warning of the rising costs of energy because of tightening energy supplies. Once they discovered that oil and gas resources exist off Virginia's shores, and that the state could experience rapid economic development from the actual business of energy exploration and development, Saxman and Wagner immediately designed legislation that would have Virginia petition the federal government for permits to drill offshore. In addition, the legislation specified that a significant portion of oil and gas royalties, state fees, and licenses collected by the state would go to improve Virginia's transportation infrastructure, clean up the Chesapeake Bay, and invest in technologies related to new energy production.

The economic potential for Virginia is significant. The oil and natural gas revenue estimated to accrue to Virginia is $13.53 billion dollars over thirty years, or $451 million annually. This is a conservative estimate that could increase with technological advances.

But these are not all the economic benefits that Virginia would reap. In just the Hampton Roads area near Norfolk, it is estimated -- based on experience with the oil and gas industry in Nova Scotia and Louisiana -- that oil and natural gas development would result in around $8 billion in capital investment and 2,600 new, high paying jobs. These new jobs would have an estimated payroll close to $650 million annually. Virginia would thus see $271 million more flow into the state treasury in the form of state and local taxes as a result of this increased economic activity.

This new tax revenue could then be used to fund transportation projects in the Hampton Roads area and throughout the state.

Imagine funding new roads, cleaning up the environment, and making investments in basic research and development science to promote new energy sources - all without raising taxes. How many coastal states besides Virginia would like to achieve that combination of benefits? Coastal states could lower energy costs for their residents as well as the energy costs of fellow citizens across the country, while relieving congestion and cleaning up the environment.

For the full text of comments: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2009/04/24/gingrich_house_energy_commerce_transcript_96182.html

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The Future of Southern Energy: Making Choices for Your Community

by Donna Morris, Executive Vice President of the Hampton Roads Partnership

Wednesday, February 25, 2009
Forum co-sponsored by the Hampton Roads Partnership and the Hampton Roads Mayors and Chairs

When we think about energy, we often think about the negative – high gas prices, environmental challenges and national security issues. However, many communities are seeing that there are ways to capitalize on economic opportunities related to energy.

Jefferson Lab hosted a forum, moderated by Cathy Lewis, with community leaders representing area colleges and universities, energy companies, economic development organizations, and other regional stakeholder groups. The forum is an initiative of the Southern Growth Policies Board (SGPB), a regional public policy think tank representing 13 states. The forum will provide feedback to be used in the SGPB 2009 annual conference as well as a high profile policy report to be shared with Southern Governors and regional leaders called Southern Growth’s 2009 Report on the Future of the South.

The big question posed for group discussion was “What can communities do to capitalize on the economic opportunities associated with energy?” The following points made during discussion summarize the response:
• Hampton Roads has an opportunity and an obligation to tackle the issue.
• Hampton Roads’ research capability is a valuable asset, one that is largely under the public radar.
• Education of the general public is imperative.
• Partnering with the military provides us with an opportunity to be an international leader in developing alternative sources of energy.
• A comprehensive energy strategy must include ways to reduce consumption.
• Recognize that we are tackling long term solutions.
• Regulatory hurdles exist and must be addressed.
• The strategy needs to be private sector driven, with support of the public sector.

Next steps:
• Meeting notes will be shared with the SGPB for their report and annual conference.
• Regional organizations like the Hampton Roads Partnership, Hampton Roads Technology Council, Hampton Roads Research Partnership, Virginia Coastal Energy Research Consortium, etc. working together to develop a plan of action.