January 1, 2101: A look 'back' at the 21st century

by Doug Dwoyer

Hampton Roads has endured a period of rapid and challenging change over the last century. The 21st century began with great optimism in the region as the nation's and region's economies were thriving. Many trends of those times, including globalization of the world's economy, significant military activity and spending and rising coal exports, favored Hampton Roads. Our once-thriving port was rapidly expanding, fueled by globalization of trade and growing coal exports. In those heady days, the future of the region indeed looked bright.

At this time, the world began to recognize the emergence of human-induced climate change and its potential to cause major disruption during the 21st century. In 2007 a report was issued by a body called the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which was sponsored by the United Nations and the World Meteorological Organization. It projected a 5-degree to 9-degree Fahrenheit change in mean global temperature and a 1-foot to 2-foot rise in sea level by 2100. Shortly after this report was issued, scientists began to discover rapid melting and deterioration of the Greenland and West Antarctica ice sheets, leading to fears of even greater sea-level rise.


Unfortunately, people around the world, including those in Hampton Roads, did not seriously respond to these warnings and continued to operate as if climate change was something abstract and not important in their daily lives.

As we know today, the projections in the 2007 IPCC report on global temperature rise were remarkably accurate, as now in 2101 it is about 10 degrees warmer around the planet than it was in 2001.

On the other hand, we have experienced a far greater sea-level rise than predicted, with sea level about 6 feet higher today than in 2001. As Greenland and West Antarctica continue their rapid melting today, there is no end in sight to rapid sea-level rise. The impact of these global changes on our region has been nothing short of devastating.

Old-timers in Hampton Roads can recall large areas of our region east of U.S. Route 17 that were above water and populated. Large areas of Gloucester and York counties, as well as major sections of Hampton, Norfolk, Virginia Beach and Chesapeake, were home to thriving communities, businesses, factories and other assets. The city of Poquoson, which no longer exists, had a population of about 11,000 in 2001 and was a rapidly growing bedroom community.

Our major highway links across the harbor, the Hampton Roads Bridge-Tunnel and the Monitor-Merrimac Memorial Bridge-Tunnel are frequently overwashed and require constant repair.

These old-timers can recall a vast military presence in the region. After the devastation caused by the major hurricanes of 2038 and 2042 and subsequent inundation, the Air Force was forced to abandon Langley Air Force Base, and by 2075 the Navy was also forced to abandon the Norfolk naval base and numerous other facilities due to inundation as well. With the loss of these military facilities, the region lost a major part of its employment base and population.


In the early 21st century, Hampton Roads was a thriving, waterfront-oriented region, and much of our then-acclaimed lifestyle was focused on living near and playing on the water.

Today that is hard to imagine, as our waterfront is dominated by abandoned buildings slowly being claimed by the bay or sea. Abandoned roads, sewage treatment facilities and other utilities lie just beneath the surface in the near-shore areas. The massive pollution from all of this has ruined the quality of the water itself, as well as making nearshore navigation hazardous. Indeed, the water has transformed from being a regional asset in 2001 to a hazardous, polluted eyesore that is inexorably devouring the region in 2101.

Looking back on this sad state of affairs for Hampton Roads in 2101, we can only wish that our ancestors a century or more ago had taken the ample warnings more seriously before these irreversible changes began. We could today live in a very different, more prosperous and enjoyable Hampton Roads than the sorry state our community has instead inherited.

Doug Dwoyer retired from NASA Langley Research Center as associate director for operations. He is project director for the Hampton Roads Research Partnership. This article was originally published on March 1, 2009 in the Daily Press and is reprinted here by permission of the author.

NOTE: Outside of New Orleans, Hampton Roads is the largest population area at greatest risk from sea-level rise according to the US Geological Service. (Thieler, E.R., and Hammar-Klose, E.S., 1999. National assessment of coastal vulnerability to sea-level rise: Preliminary results for the U.S. Atlantic coast. U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 99-593).

From the Virginia Dept. of Environmental Quality; Click on map above for larger view.